Bush’s Expanding War

There is further news of the clandestine
US preparations for war against
Iraq and the use of Jordan in that operation.

The
New York Times published a report today sugegsting that the
US would be specially focusing on protecting Israel from Iraqi missile counter strikes. The report maintains that the US is thinking all this on its own but has not yet brought the matter up with the Jordanians.

The authoritative Arabic language
Beirut paper as-Safir
today once again publishes information from “diplomatic sources” that indicates that the
US preparations and Jordanian involvement are already well underway. We publish a translation of the story from
as-Safir followed by
The New York Times story (which as-Safir also reports extensively).

As-Safir, Beirut, Thursday, 11 July
2002.

“as-Safir” publishes details of preparations for the war on Iraq:

Washington successfully concludes negotiations with four participating countries

“As-Safir” has learned from diplomatic sources that the
United States has completed intense negotiations with Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait, and Turkey on the use of those countries’ territories and airspace to carry out attacks on Iraq and to topple President
Saddam Hussein. The sources say that contacts with the Iraqi opposition have made considerable progress towards drawing up a temporary framework for the stage following the military strike.

The sources say that Saudi Arabia has informed Washington of its final decision refusing the use of its territory or any
American base in Saudi Arabia in any battle against Iraq. They say that the
Americans have halted their pressure on
Riyadh in this regard.

On the other hand, however, Washington is striving, according to the sources, to reaffirm its agreements with other states neighboring Iraq, and they say that an agreement has been reached with Jordan on the implementation of a military plan for American ground forces to enter Iraq.

The diplomatic
sources report that five thousand
Jordanian army troops who are of
Jordanian descent, most of them of the
Bani Hasan bedouin tribe, have been
selected to be charged with the
rear-guard tasks. They are to undergo
special training. Available
information indicates that they will be
detailed to enter residential areas
through which or around which the
American forces have gone. These
Jordanian troops have begun training
with light medium-weight
weapons.

Along these lines, the diplomatic sources report that 200 Jeeps, in particular open, GMC models, that carry medium-caliber machine guns have arrived in Jordan. Jordanian troops are currently being trained with the Jeeps in how to cut land routes, prevent breakthroughs by opposing forces, patrolling areas near the front lines, and in how to make contact with the local people in Iraq.

The sources say that 1,600 American men and officers have thus far deployed in the areas of northern Jordan and that some 800
other men have deployed in areas in the south of the country. In addition
American special forces commandos have undertaken various types of reconnaissance work in the areas on the border with Iraq, including in Iraqi territory.

The sources have disclosed that the areas of al-Mafraq and al-Safawi on the
Jordanian-Iraqi border have been chosen as jump-off points for military operations against Iraq, when a plan is put into action in those areas according to the following stipulations: “preparation of two military airfields and various radar stations specially with the airforce and missile forces, and to build surface-to-air, and surface-to-surface missile bases and a military hospital.”

According to the same sources, additional measures will be taken in the area of the Jordan Valley in order to protect Jordan from any penetration. In this connection, missile forces will be deployed and special forces units stationed along with Patriot anti-missile batteries in the Jordan Valley.

In addition, the sources have reported that the American side has intensified its meetings with all the members of the Iraqi opposition, including Shiite groups that do not have good relations with
Washington. The sources add that the discussions are currently focusing on the formation of a “provisional administration” to take on the task of coordination between the decentralized leaderships in the regions that the
Americans have proposed to partition off in the first stage.

The opposition has decided, according to the sources, that attempts to attract high ranking Iraqi officers have failed as have efforts to get influential bedouin tribes to agree to cooperate.

[English translations by this website’s expert]

U.S. Considers Wary Jordan as Base for an Attack on Iraq

By ERIC SCHMITT

WASHINGTON, July 9 —
American military planners are considering using bases in Jordan to stage air and commando operations against
Iraq in the event the United States decides to attack Iraq, senior defense officials said today.

But Jordan has not yet been consulted specifically about the possible use of its bases, and Jordanian officials have criticized such a plan.

An American military planning document prepared at the Central Command calls for air-, land- and sea-based forces to attack
Iraq from three directions, but the details of which countries might be involved are just coming to light.

Using Jordanian bases would enable the
Pentagon to attack Iraq from the west, as well as from the north via Turkey and the south via several Persian Gulf states.

Such an arrangement would also introduce American forces between Iraq and
Israel to help detect, track and destroy
Scud missiles that Baghdad might shoot at
Israeli targets, as it did during the
Persian Gulf war in 1991, the officials said.

A final military plan for attacking
Iraq has not yet been prepared, but “every country in the region, from Turkey to
Jordan to the gulf states, was being considered when you’re talking about mounting an operation,” a senior defense official said.

President Bush has discussed with King Abdullah of Jordan the administration’s goal of toppling
President Saddam Hussein of Iraq and the political landscape without Mr.
Hussein, officials said.

But in a telephone interview from Amman today, Jordan’s foreign minister,
Marwan J. Muasher, said:

“Our public
position is the same as our private
position. Jordan will not be used as a
launching pad, and we do not have any
U.S. forces in Jordan.”

The reason for Jordan’s anxiety is clear. King Abdullah, who presides over a poor country in need of aid and good will from the United States, is trying to be a friend to Washington. He has met with
President Bush and Vice President Dick
Cheney at the White House four times in the past two years, most recently on
May 8.

The king is to meet privately with Mr.
Bush here later this month, officials said.

At the same time, most of Jordan’s population is of Palestinian descent, and
Palestinians have been ardent supporters of President Hussein.

Jordanian sensitivities regarding Iraq have a long history. During the gulf war, the current king’s father, King Hussein, essentially sat on the fence as
Palestinians in the West Bank and in
Jordan repeatedly held boisterous and sometimes violent demonstrations in support of Iraq.

Now Iraq sends large cash payments to families of Palestinian suicide bombers, further cementing the Iraqi leader’s popularity among Palestinians.

King Abdullah would risk alienating many Palestinians in his kingdom, destabilizing the fragile balance that maintains Jordan as a viable state, if he allowed American troops to mount an attack from Jordanian territory.

Indeed, when Mr. Cheney visited the king in Amman in March, the Jordanian authorities issued a statement expressing the monarch’s concern about “the repercussions of any possible strike on
Iraq and the dangers of that on the stability and security of the region.”

American military planners, operating without the political filters that their superiors would impose if an attack were imminent, say Jordan’s role could be similar to that of Pakistan in the war in
Afghanistan.

Pakistan has allowed American Special
Operations forces and search and rescue crews to work out of bases in the country, but neither nation publicly acknowledges the arrangement.

A spokesman for the National Security
Council, Sean McCormack, said the administration would not comment on war planning, but noted that “Jordan is a close friend and ally.”

There are several signs that military cooperation between Washington and Jordan is increasing. The administration has requested $25 million from Congress as part of a larger emergency spending bill to provide Jordan with military equipment and “upgrades for land and air base defense,” as well as border security, said a congressional aide.

The military’s Central Command, which is responsible for planning military operations in 25 countries from the Red
Sea to the Indian Ocean, has rated the construction projects in Jordan among its highest priorities, one official said.
Some of the American aid could go toward lengthening runways at two Jordanian air bases to accommodate larger planes, the official said.

Two weeks ago, Gen. Tommy R.
Franks, the head of American forces in the Middle East, met in Amman with King
Abdullah and with the defense minister and the senior military officer. Col. Ray
Shepherd, a spokesman for General
Franks, said the meeting was a “routine” visit.

American forces have conducted joint operations in Jordan. A year ago, 2,200
marines from the 11th Marine Expeditionary
Unit from Camp Pendleton, Calif., took part in an exercise in Aqaba. In the late
1990’s, American warplanes flew missions to enforce the no-flight zone over southern Iraq from Jordanian air bases.

The United States and Jordan have also carried out intelligence cooperation for many years.

Internal military planning over how to use Jordanian bases comes as the outlines of a plan to attack Iraq are evolving and apparently working their way through military channels.

Once a consensus is reached on the concept, the steps toward assembling a final war plan and the element of timing for ground deployments and launching an air war represent the final decisions for
President Bush to make.

The existence of the military planning document was first reported in an op-ed article in The Los Angeles Times
last month. The New York Times
published details of the document last
Friday.