Watching
events unfold from the
low-profile position it has
staked out at the behest of
its guardian U. S. ally,
Israel quietly stands to reap
strategic benefits. | Reuters Monday,
April 7, 2003 Israel
Sets Sights on Iraq War Strategic
Gains Mon April 7, 2003 10:54 AM ET By Jeffrey Heller JERUSALEM (Reuters) -
Ask Prime Minister
Ariel
Sharon
about the U. S. -led military campaign in
Iraq and the former general will quickly
shoot back it's not Israel's war.
But watching events unfold from the
low-profile position
it has staked out at the behest of its
guardian U. S. ally, Israel quietly
stands to reap strategic benefits from the
crushing of a long-time enemy. They include, Israeli strategic
analysts said on Monday, an end to any
future Iraqi nuclear threat and a possible
move by other Arab enemies to avoid
confrontation with Israel now that its
best friend has muscled its way into the
neighborhood. "The war will influence the behavior of
other potential rivals of Israel,
especially Iran, Syria and (the Lebanese
guerrilla group) Hizbollah," predicted
retired general Shlomo Brom of the
Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel
Aviv. "It is clear to them that if they do
not behave, they could be the next target
of the United States," he told
Reuters. Brom noted that Hizbollah, which is
backed by Iran and Syria, had already
shown "very cautious behavior during the
current crisis. " Before the Iraq war, Israeli newspapers
headlined fears Hizbollah would respond to
a Gulf conflict by firing missiles at
Israel, effectively opening a northern
front that would tax an Israeli army
confronting a Palestinian uprising for
statehood. Traditional
EnemyIsrael has also traditionally looked
warily toward the east, where it has seen
Iraq as a threat and a military backstop
for the Jewish state's long-time foe,
Syria. "Iraq has participated in all the wars
against Israel," said Ephraim
Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat
Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan
University near Tel Aviv. "(Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein) attempted to develop nuclear
weapons. . . (and) developed long-range
missiles -- he already sent a few 12 years
ago," he said, referring to Scud attacks
that Iraq launched against Israel in the
1991 Gulf War . "He is a declared enemy of
the Jewish state and helped Palestinian
terrorist groups," Inbar added. Iraq has
been paying $25,000 to families of
Palestinian suicide bombers, money which
Israel says encourages attacks in its city
centers. Iraq's neighbor to the east,
Iran, is widely viewed in Israel as a
long-term threat. Teheran's nuclear
reactor program, which Iranian leaders say
is peaceful, has raised Israeli
concern. "The United States will be able to
apply more effective pressure on (Iran) to
stop this (nuclear) project," Brom said.
"This will be of great strategic benefit
to Israel. " Peace
DividendIn the run-up to the Iraq war, senior
Israeli officials pointed to a peace
dividend, saying the conflict could
trigger a "regional earthquake" that would
weaken Islamic militants and strengthen
what they called Arab pragmatists. Inbar
noted the 1991 Gulf War was followed
several months later by a historic Middle
East peace conference in Madrid that set
the stage for interim peace deals between
Israel and the Palestinians. "The Arabs came to the negotiating
table in order to please America," he
said. "We may see a similar scenario.
" But Brom said Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak may not have been far
off the mark in comments he made to
Egyptian soldiers last week about an Iraq
war aftershock. "Instead of having one
(Osama) bin Laden, we will have 100
bin Ladens," Mubarak said, referring to
the Saudi-born fugitive Islamic militant
leader blamed by the United States for the
September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and
Washington. Brom said increased
frustration within Arab society over U. S.
actions in Iraq "can boost recruitment
into terrorist organizations such as bin
Laden's or Islamic groups. "
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